With just one day of the Euro 2024 group stage remaining, Sports Mole looks at what every team needs to do to progress into the last 16.
Five more last 16 places are available at Euro 2024 heading into the final day of the group stage in Germany.
Germany, Spain, England and Portugal have fulfilled pre-tournament odds by topping their respective groups – with varying degrees of convincingness – but there was a shock in Group D as Austria beat France and Netherlands to first place.
Switzerland, Italy, Denmark and France are all through as runners-up, while two of the four best third-placed teams have also been decided – Netherlands and Slovenia going through via that route.
Aside from guaranteed Group F winners Portugal, it is still all to play for on Wednesday too, particularly in Group E, which is the tightest group in Euros history.
Here, Sports Mole rounds up what every team needs to qualify from their group at Euro 2024.
GROUP E
Already qualified: None
Already eliminated: None
Remaining fixtures
Ukraine vs. Belgium (Wednesday, June 26 | 5pm)
Slovakia vs. Romania (Wednesday, June 26 | 5pm)
What do Belgium need to reach the last 16?
GROUP F
Already qualified: Portugal
Already eliminated: None
Remaining fixtures
Czech Republic vs. Turkey (Wednesday, June 26 | 8pm)
Georgia vs. Portugal (Wednesday, June 26 | 8pm)
What do Turkey need to reach last 16?
What has already been decided?
GROUP A
Qualified: Germany, Switzerland
Eliminated: Scotland
Scotland realistically needed to beat Hungary on the final matchday of Group A to stand a chance of reaching the knockout rounds of a major tournament for the first time in their history, but they fell short in Stuttgart and ultimately finished bottom of the pile.
Hungary’s heart-breaking 100th-minute winner rubber-stamped Scotland’s early exit from the competition, making it 12 major tournaments and 12 group-stage exits for the Tartan Army.
On the flip side, the goal did throw Hungary’s name back into the hat for one of the best third-place spots, moving up to three points with their first points of the tournament.
However, their poor goal difference of minus three could come back to bite them, and now they face a nervous waiting game to see whether they will qualify.
Germany had already secured their place in the last 16 before the final matchday, but they needed a 92nd-minute equaliser to cling on to top spot, denying Switzerland in the process.
The 1-1 draw was enough to see Switzerland join the hosts in the knockout rounds, though, as they finished in second place on five points.
GROUP B
Qualified: Spain, Italy
Eliminated: Albania
Spain were already through as group winners heading into the final matchday on Monday, and a much-changed side held off a late Albania rally to secure a 1-0 victory that sends them into the knockout rounds with a 100% record without conceding a goal throughout the groups.
There was far more drama behind them, though, with Italy scoring a incredible equaliser in the last minute of stoppage time to ensure that they nicked second place ahead of Croatia, who had been due to progress until that gut-wrenching strike.
Instead, Luka Modric and co were forced to wait to learn their ultimate fate, which was decided by results on Tuesday as they crashed out as one of the worst third-placed sides.
Albania, meanwhile, finished bottom of the pile as expected, although they more than held their own in the ‘Group of Death’, with both of their defeats coming by just a solitary goal.
GROUP C
Qualified: England, Denmark, Slovenia
Eliminated: Serbia
England were already assured of their place in the last 16 before their final group game against Slovenia, and even another uninspired performance en route to a 0-0 draw was enough to secure top spot too.
That is because Denmark and Serbia also played out a goalless stalemate in the night’s other game, sending Denmark through in second and Slovenia through as one of the best third-placed teams.
Denmark and Slovenia finished level on head to head, goal difference and goals scored, meaning that the group placings were determined by disciplinary points; Denmark were one point better than Slovenia in that regard.
The result of Europe may not be too worried looking at those to qualify from Group C, though; only fourth-placed Serbia have scored fewer goals than England, Denmark and Slovenia in the entire tournament.
GROUP D
Qualified: Austria, France, Netherlands
Already eliminated: Poland
Group D was the place to be for drama and excitement on Tuesday, with Austria stealing the show to pip both France and Netherlands to a surprise top spot in a challenging group.
France and Netherlands were both already through heading into the final matchday, but Ralf Rangnick‘s dark horses ensured that they would have to progress into the knockout rounds as runners-up and third place respectively.
Austria took the lead three times in their match against Netherlands, the last of which stuck, while already-eliminated Poland picked up their only point of Euro 2024 courtesy of Robert Lewandowski‘s retaken penalty against France, earning a 1-1 draw.
The final order of Group D prompts a massive shake-up of many people’s expected course for the tournament, including possible last 16 showdowns between England and Netherlands, and France and Belgium.
Who are the best-ranked third-placed teams at Euro 2024?
Hungary’s dramatic 100th-minute winner against Scotland kept their hopes of sneaking into the last 16 just about alive, ending their Group A campaign on three points.
That is the same number as two other third-placed teams right now, and would be enough to book a knockout berth as things stand, although that could still change on the final day of group games.
Hungary’s goal difference could also harm them; they are behind Slovakia and Slovenia in the third-placed qualification stakes, and a win for Czech Republic on Wednesday could leave Hungary in a straight goal difference shootout with Turkey.
Croatia’s heartbreaking late concession against Italy ultimately saw them crash out too, but Netherlands and Slovenia are both already through as third-placed teams.
1. Netherlands (4pts | 0 GD) – Qualified
2. Slovakia (3pts | 0 GD)
3. Slovenia (3pts | 0 GD) – Qualified
4. Hungary (3pts | -3 GD)
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5. Croatia (2pts | -3 GD) – Eliminated
6. Czech Republic (1pt | -1 GD)
Click here to see all of the projected Euro 2024 last 16 and quarter-final ties as things stand.
What are the Euro 2024 tie-breakers?
The number of points gained are, of course, the first port of call when it comes to deciding positions in the group tables, but beyond that things get a little more complicated with relatively few matches taking place.
If points are level, it then goes to head-to-head results between any teams involved, and then head-to-head goal difference and head-to-head goals scored.
In the case of draws between two teams, all of those tie-breakers are often level, so it then goes down to overall goal difference, and overall goals scored after that.
If two or more teams are still tied after all of that, the next deciding factor is their disciplinary total. This is calculated using a points system, where a red card is worth three points, a yellow is worth one, and two yellows in a game is worth three. The team with the lowest disciplinary points tally would progress.
In the unlikely event that things are still evenly tied, the ultimate deciding factor would then be their ranking in qualifiers for Euro 2024.
1. Points
2. Head-to-head results between team or teams
3. Head-to-head goal difference
4. Head-to-head goals scored
5. Overall goal difference
6. Overall goals scored
7. Lowest disciplinary points total
8. Ranking in qualifiers