Euro 2024 permutations: England are through, but what do they need to win Group C?

Half of the last 16 places at Euro 2024 have now been filled, although there is still plenty to be decided heading into the final two days of group games at the tournament.

After groups A and B concluded with remarkable late drama on Sunday and Monday, football fans will be treated to double-headers on Tuesday and Wednesday as the eight remaining matches take places across groups C, D, E and F.

Germany, Spain and Portugal have already secured top spot in their respective groups, while Switzerland and Italy go through as runners-up in groups A and B.

England, France and Netherlands are also guaranteed a place in the last 16 due to their four-point hauls from the first two games, although their exact placings in groups C and D will only be decided on Tuesday.

A host of other teams still have work to do to join those eight qualified teams in the next round, with Poland the only team already eliminated of the 16 still with a game remaining.

Here, Sports Mole rounds up what every team needs to qualify from their group at Euro 2024.

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GROUP C

Already qualified: England
Already eliminated: None

Remaining fixtures

England vs. Slovenia (Tuesday, June 25 | 8pm)
Denmark vs. Serbia (Tuesday, June 25 | 8pm)

What do England need to win the group?

For all the doom and gloom surrounding England’s underwhelming start to the tournament, results on Monday mean that they are already guaranteed a place in the last 16.

Victory over Slovenia would secure top spot in Group C, while a draw would also be enough if Denmark fail to beat Slovenia. If England draw and Denmark win, it would come down to goal difference.

Denmark will seal a last-16 spot with a win over Serbia, while they could clinch top spot if they win by two goals and England draw with Slovenia.

Slovenia will qualify with a win over England, while that result coupled with Denmark failing to win would guarantee top spot. Should Denmark also win, first place would go down to goal difference.

Serbia will finish in the top two if they beat Denmark and England avoid defeat to Slovenia.

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GROUP D

Already qualified: Netherlands, France
Already eliminated: Poland

Remaining fixtures

Netherlands vs. Austria (Tuesday, June 25 | 5pm)
France vs. Poland (Tuesday, June 25 | 5pm)

What do France, Netherlands need to reach last 16?

With four points to their names, Netherlands and France are both already guaranteed a place in the last 16, although as things stand that could be as group winners, runners-up or as a best third-placed team.

Should both Netherlands and France record the same result, top spot would come down to goal difference, and then goals scored if the difference is also level.

Netherlands simply need to avoid defeat to secure a top-two spot.

France will finish in the top two if Austria fail to beat Netherlands.

Austria will book a last 16 berth if they beat Netherlands, while victory coupled with France dropping points against Poland would secure top spot. A draw for Austria would leave them third, but still in a good position to qualify.

Poland became the first team to be officially eliminated from the competition.

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GROUP E

Already qualified: None
Already eliminated: None

Remaining fixtures

Ukraine vs. Belgium (Wednesday, June 26 | 5pm)
Slovakia vs. Romania (Wednesday, June 26 | 5pm)

What to Belgium need to reach the last 16?

This is officially the tightest group in Euros history to date – the only time all four teams have ever been level on points after two games.

This unique situation means that a win for any team on matchday three will guarantee them a place in the last 16.

The state of the goal difference means that just a point would be enough for both Romania and Belgium to qualify.

In the case that both games are drawn, every team would finish on four points but Ukraine would be eliminated on goal difference, while Slovakia would be in a strong position to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.

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GROUP F

Already qualified: Portugal
Already eliminated: None

Remaining fixtures

Czech Republic vs. Turkey (Wednesday, June 26 | 8pm)
Georgia vs. Portugal (Wednesday, June 26 | 8pm)

What do Turkey need to reach last 16?

Portugal have already sealed their place in the last 16 as Group F winners.

Turkey will join them in the next round if they avoid defeat to Czech Republic.

Czech Republic must therefore beat Turkey and hope Georgia do not beat Portugal in order to guarantee a top-two finish. If both Czech Republic and Georgia win, second place would come down to goal difference, although a best third-place spot would also then be likely for either.

Georgia need to beat Portugal and hope Czech Republic beat Turkey to stand any chance of finishing in the top two, although they would also then need to record a better goal difference than the Czechs too. Victory would leave them in a good position for a best third-place berth, though.

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What has already been decided?

GROUP A

Qualified: Germany, Switzerland
Eliminated: Scotland

Scotland realistically needed to beat Hungary on the final matchday of Group A to stand a chance of reaching the knockout rounds of a major tournament for the first time in their history, but they fell short in Stuttgart and ultimately finished bottom of the pile.

Hungary’s heart-breaking 100th-minute winner rubber-stamped Scotland’s early exit from the competition, making it 12 major tournaments and 12 group-stage exits for the Tartan Army.

On the flip side, the goal did throw Hungary’s name back into the hat for one of the best third-place spots, moving up to three points with their first points of the tournament.

However, their poor goal difference of minus three could come back to bite them, and now they face a nervous waiting game to see whether they will qualify.

Germany had already secured their place in the last 16 before the final matchday, but they needed a 92nd-minute equaliser to cling on to top spot, denying Switzerland in the process.

The 1-1 draw was enough to see Switzerland join the hosts in the knockout rounds, though, as they finished in second place on five points.

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GROUP B

Qualified: Spain, Italy
Eliminated: Albania

Spain were already through as group winners heading into the final matchday on Monday, and a much-changed side side off a late Albania rally to secure a 1-0 victory that sends them into the knockout rounds with a 100% record without conceding a goal throughout the groups.

There was far more drama behind them, though, with Italy scoring a incredible equaliser in the last minute of stoppage time to ensure that they nicked second place ahead of Croatia, who had been due to progress until that gut-wrenching strike.

Instead, Luka Modric and co must now wait to learn their fate as one of the third-placed teams, although that route is highly unlikely given that they only amassed two points and have a goal difference of minus three.

Indeed, they could officially be eliminated on Tuesday night depending on how the third-place table looks after the matches in groups C and D.

Albania, meanwhile, finished bottom of the pile as expected, although they more than held their own in the ‘Group of Death’, with both of their defeats coming by just a solitary goal.

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Who are the best-ranked third-placed teams at Euro 2024?

Hungary’s dramatic 100th-minute winner against Scotland kept their hopes of sneaking into the last 16 just about alive, ending their Group A campaign on three points.

That is the same number as two other third-placed teams right now, and would be enough to book a knockout berth as things stand, although that could still change over the final two days of group games.

Hungary’s goal difference could also harm them; they are still behind Austria and Slovakia in the third-placed qualification stakes despite having played a game more, while Slovenia and Czech Republic are both within striking distance.

Croatia’s heartbreaking late concession against Italy leaves them on course to crash out too; they would require Slovenia to lose heavily against England, and for both Czech Republic and Georgia to lose, to stand any chance of progressing.

1. Austria (3pts | +1 GD)
2. Slovakia (3pts | 0 GD)
3. Hungary (3pts | -3 GD)
4. Slovenia (2pts | 0 GD)
5. Croatia (2pts | -3 GD)
6. Czech Republic (1pt | -1 GD)

Click here to see all of the projected Euro 2024 last 16 and quarter-final ties as things stand.

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What are the Euro 2024 tie-breakers?

The number of points gained are, of course, the first port of call when it comes to deciding positions in the group tables, but beyond that things get a little more complicated with relatively few matches taking place.

If points are level, it then goes to head-to-head results between any teams involved, and then head-to-head goal difference and head-to-head goals scored.

In the case of draws between two teams, all of those tie-breakers are often level, so it then goes down to overall goal difference, and overall goals scored after that.

If two or more teams are still tied after all of that, the next deciding factor is their disciplinary total. This is calculated using a points system, where a red card is worth three points, a yellow is worth one, and two yellows in a game is worth three. The team with the lowest disciplinary points tally would progress.

In the unlikely event that things are still evenly tied, the ultimate deciding factor would then be their ranking in qualifiers for Euro 2024.

1. Points
2. Head-to-head results between team or teams
3. Head-to-head goal difference
4. Head-to-head goals scored
5. Overall goal difference
6. Overall goals scored
7. Lowest disciplinary points total
8. Ranking in qualifiers

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