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Heading into the first few weeks of the new Premier League season, one of the most frequent questions aimed Arne Slot’s way was that of rotation. At Feyenoord, he candidly explained, there was little reason to switch up his first team too much; fewer league games, one fewer domestic cup to navigate and more difficulty in reaching the latter stages of Europe. His final campaign at the Eredivisie side saw Slot’s team play only 48 matches – and that included the Johan Cruyff Shield, the Dutch season-opener, and going the distance to win the KNVB Cup.
A few weeks later and the new Liverpool boss has shown a deft hand at altering his lineup without, so far, dramatically reducing the quality on show; while the performance against West Ham was somewhat stuttering after nine changes, so too was the win over Wolves with a regular first XI in place.
League Cup aside, Slot has shown an early preference for making a couple of switches, keeping the bulk of his starters in situ and letting others find form and push for places two or three at a time. Cody Gakpo was perhaps the first to stake his claim; more recently, Curtis Jones has done likewise.
Back in the Champions League this midweek against Bologna, it would be no surprise to see both that duo come into the team, a continuation of that process on the gentler end of rotation’s sliding scale, but also something of an insight into what this year’s competition offers – or doesn’t.
That is competitiveness, jeopardy, a reason to have to be at maximum full strength every single game, or suffer the consequences. It’s not to suggest teams and players won’t play well in European competition, nor that they don’t want to win, but even a single gameweek in it has become incredibly apparent that those at the top of the talent pool will only increase the gap to the rest in the new format – and for a domestic title challenger such as Liverpool, that can bring additional benefits further on in the season.
But the Premier League table – which the Reds currently top – comes later. First is Europe and a big chance to set a platform which puts them well within reach of the knockout phase… yes, already, with the end of the league section not due until January.
Uefa’s own simulations suggested eight or nine points might be enough for a playoff spot and ten almost certainly would be. Naturally, clubs like Liverpool might be aiming for top-eight finishes – thus no playoff tie to navigate before the last 16 – but it already feels a small difference to make.
Consider: for those two extra matches to play for a side who misses out on eighth or above, the rotation allowed and the lack of real intensity in some Champions League games between now and the new year are going to more than allow for those extra minutes to be overcome – and especially when factoring in that the top few – should Liverpool be considered likely to finish below more than, say, 14 of these other clubs? – will play the last sides clinching a playoff berth.
In other words, rotating out a Mohamed Salah or Virgil van Dijk against a Girona or PSV would be more than gained back if they then had to play one of the legs against…Young Boys? Brest? Celtic, perhaps?
The added upside is in choosing which Premier League games certain players should be held back before, allowing Slot to still have key areas of the team fully fresh for those domestic challenges.
It’s impossible to absolutely know how this year’s Champions League is going to play out, but more games generally means more chance of the best teams rising to the top, and there’s a reasonable chance that there are not eight sides overall better than Liverpool to begin with. Even those most testing of fixtures they face, Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid, are both at home. And if Uefa genuinely think they are going to get a true “Liverpool vs Real Madrid” clash, history and European magic and atmosphere and excitement and nerves and undimmed, unbreakable, ferocious must-win play, they are deluding nobody but themselves.
A fifth game of eight, both teams might already have reached the fabled ten-point barrier which guarantees some sort of progress by then.
No jeopardy, no tension, no reason to risk fitness and futures with over-the-top intensity and desire in the way two recent finals between the clubs have organically generated.
Especially not four days before playing Manchester City.
But it’s not just that match, it’s all eight. Players can be rested. If Bologna and Leipzig are beaten the same way Milan were, with a few changes made and without too much fuss, Liverpool can ensure they are best-prepared for each weekend league game in turn, boosting their chances of staying at or near the top of the domestic table for longer.
None of this makes Slot’s immediate task any easier: he still has to juggle players wanting gametime, still has to find a way of beating Bologna, still has to actually get the results. But so far, by and large, he has done, and if matters continue in the same vein, more Champions League games could actually end up somewhat aiding Liverpool in their quest for another Premier League title.