The Sports Mole team predict how they think Euro 2024 will pan out this summer, including exact group positions and the winners of every knockout tie up to and including the final.
Euro 2024 is nearly upon us, with excitement building around the continent for the latest installment of a tournament that will crown the kings of Europe for the next four years.
Some of the biggest names in world football will hope to inspire their countries to glory during the month-long extravaganza in Germany.
Many of the usual suspects are among the favourites once again this time around, and every nation travelling to the tournament will be dreaming of getting their hands on the trophy in Berlin on July 14, with varying degrees of realism.
As with almost every football fan, the Sports Mole team has been speculating and predicting who will be standing tall when all is said and done.
Here, ahead of the tournament getting underway on June 14, we have taken the full team’s expected Euro 2024 path and aggregated them into a master prediction for how the entire festival of football might pan out, from precise group placings to the winners of each knockout tie up to and including the final.
EURO 2024 GROUP A PREDICTION
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1. Germany (Q)
2. Hungary (Q)
3. Switzerland (Q)
4. Scotland
Host nation Germany were the clear winners of the group amongst the Sports Mole team, unanimously being predicted to top their pool and progress into the last 16 with relative ease.
However, the race for the spots behind them proved to be one of the most tightly-fought in our predictions, with 47% thinking that Hungary would finish second and 40% backing Switzerland to grab the other automatic qualification spot.
To make matters more complicated, 47% of the team believe that Scotland will finish third and potentially be in contention for the last 16 via that route, although Steve Clarke‘s side also received the most votes to finish bottom of the pile.
As it is, the aggregated results saw Hungary nick second place and Switzerland progress through as one of the best third-placed teams.
EURO 2024 GROUP B PREDICTION
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1. Spain (Q)
2. Italy (Q)
3. Croatia (Q)
4. Albania
Group B is the dreaded ‘Group of Death’ at this year’s Euros, and that was showcased in the fact that it was the only group not to have a unanimous winner amongst our team.
Even so, 80% are backing Spain to finish top of the pile, with the remaining 20% thinking they will finish in the top two and reach the last 16 automatically anyway.
Behind them, it was a battle between Italy and Croatia, and the defending champions were most heavily fancied to come second, with Croatia making it into the knockout rounds as one of the best third-placed teams.
Albania suffered from being in a group with three heavyweights, meanwhile, with Sylvinho‘s men the only team to be predicted to finish bottom of their group by every single one of our reporters.
EURO 2024 GROUP C PREDICTION
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1. England (Q)
2. Denmark (Q)
3. Serbia (Q)
4. Slovenia
Hope is high amongst England fans that Gareth Southgate‘s class of 2024 can finally end their 58-year wait for a major international trophy, and every member of our team backed them to finish top of Group C and get their campaign off to an encouraging start.
Denmark’s votes were split between second place and third place, but there was an interesting spread behind them, with Serbia’s projected finishes being split 33% for second, 27% for third and 40% for fourth.
However, Slovenia got all of the remaining 60% of picks to finish bottom of the group, compared to just 7% to finish second, meaning that Serbia scrape into third place, and also into the last 16.
EURO 2024 GROUP D PREDICTION
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1. France (Q)
2. Netherlands (Q)
3. Austria (Q)
4. Poland
Another group with a couple of heavyweights competing for top spot, and unsurprisingly both France and Netherlands were overwhelmingly backed to finish in the top two.
Such is France’s strength in depth that they were still unanimously selected as Group D winners despite the presence of Netherlands, who were selected by 93% of our reporters to finish second behind the 2022 World Cup runners-up.
Austria were then a clear favourite to finish third – and also to come through as one of the best third-placed teams – leaving Poland bottom of the pile with 80% of our team expecting them to prop up the rest.
EURO 2024 GROUP E PREDICTION
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1. Belgium (Q)
2. Ukraine (Q)
3. Slovakia
4. Romania
Belgium were another group winner chosen by the entire team, and behind them Ukraine were also the clear favourites to finish in second and book their place in the last 16 with 60% backing them to do so.
In comparison, Slovakia received 27% of the votes for second place and Romania just 13%, and Slovakia also beat out Romania for third place with double the number of selections.
However, neither side are expected to make it through to the last 16, with Slovakia receiving the fewest best third-place selections amongst those predicted to finish in that position among our team.
EURO 2024 GROUP F PREDICTION
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1. Portugal (Q)
2. Turkey (Q)
3. Czech Republic
4. Georgia
There was a clear order to Group F among our team’s predictions, with Portugal – complete with Cristiano Ronaldo – unanimously backed to finish top of the pile.
Turkey were also fancied by 87% to book their place in the last 16 automatically, while 67% selected Czech Republic to finish in third.
However, like Slovakia, our team did not fancy Czech Republic to do enough to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams, while behind them Georgia’s maiden outing at a European Championship is expected to end in a bottom-placed finish in their group.
EURO 2024 ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS
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Four nations were backed by every single member of our team to make it past the round of 16, with Germany, England, Portugal and France getting that unanimous approval.
Spain, Netherlands and Belgium were also heavily fancied, while Italy were most predicted to be eliminated in the first knockout round among those who have made it through in the aggregated results, with 33% of the team expecting their title defence to fall at that hurdle.
Turkey’s elimination in the last 16 was unanimously selected, while all of those who predicted Denmark to reach that stage also expected them to make it no further.
EURO 2024 QUARTER-FINAL PREDICTIONS
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Our map for the tournament sets us on course for some blockbuster quarter-finals, and it is the four teams who were backed by everyone to come through the last 16 that we expect to make up the semi-final lineup.
Belgium’s collision course with France saw them become the team with the most votes to be eliminated in the quarters, while Spain were not far behind due to a showdown with the hosts looming.
Portugal were also heavily fancied ahead of Netherlands, while for England we are predicting revenge for their defeat to Italy in the Euro 2020 final at Wembley.
EURO 2024 SEMI-FINAL PREDICTIONS
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Our team might be predicting English vengeance for Euro 2020, but not for the 2022 World Cup, with more semi-final heartbreak expected against the team that knocked them out in the quarter-finals in Qatar.
France’s superior strength in depth throughout their entire team proved to be the difference in that predicted semi-final, with 80% of our writers projecting another near-miss for Southgate’s men this summer.
The second spot in the final was much more closely contested; Portugal and Germany were both backed by the same proportion of people to make it to the showpiece – 33% each – but more of our team expected Germany to crash out in the semi-finals, and for Portugal to go and lift the trophy, leading the aggregated outcome to give the result to Portugal.
EURO 2024 FINAL PREDICTION
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A repeat of the 2016 final could well be on the cards this summer, then, albeit with a different outcome as our team are projecting France to win the whole thing and get their hands on the trophy for the first time since 2000.
Les Bleus were backed by a whopping 87% of people to reach the final, and by 67% to win it too – comfortably the most-backed team.
Portugal (13%) were one of three other countries to be predicted to lift the trophy, alongside England (13%) and Germany (7%), while they were the joint-second most-backed team to reach the final, behind France and alongside Germany.