Sports Mole previews Thursday’s Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Estonia and Austria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Still capable of pipping Belgium to top spot in Euro 2024 qualifying Group F, Austria close out a successful preliminary campaign when they do battle with Estonia in Tallinn on Thursday.
In contrast, the hosts have only accrued one point from a possible 18 in the section, but their journey is not done and dusted just yet, as a playoff place remains on offer for the time being.
Match preview
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As was the case during qualifying for Euro 1996 and Euro 2020, Estonia could end another failed venture without a single victory to their name, and Thomas Haberli‘s crop were condemned to a fourth successive loss in the section when Azerbaijan paid a visit last month.
Since claiming their only point of the section so far against Azerbaijan in June, Estonia were subjected to a pair of 5-0 and 3-0 beatings at the hands of Belgium – also losing to Sweden by the latter scoreline – and Giovanni De Biasi‘s men rectified their summer errors to prevail 2-0 thanks to Toral Bayramov‘s header and Ramil Sheydayev‘s spot kick.
Estonia have not been consigned to a fifth-placed finish just yet, as the world’s 118th-ranked nation only have a three-point gap to make up to Azerbaijan, but a trip to Sween this weekend will hardly fill the Blueshirts faithful with unbridled optimism.
As things stand, however, Estonia will receive a golden ticket to the playoffs, as fewer than four teams from the top tier of the Nations League are set to go down that path, meaning that the 12th and final spot will be passed onto the best-ranked League D nation, which just so happens to be Haberli’s men.
Furthermore, the hosts managed to restore a slight sense of pride with a 1-1 friendly draw against Thailand on October 17, although that result extended their winless streak in all tournaments to eight matches since a surprise 1-0 exhibition success over Finland back in January.
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While Estonia were outwitted by Azerbaijan in their most recent Euro 2024 qualifier, Austria managed to avoid the same fate during their battle with De Biasi’s men a few weeks back, as Marcel Sabitzer‘s penalty punched his nation’s ticket to a fourth continental championships.
After earning their inaugural appearance at the Euros in 2008 as co-hosts with Switzerland, Austria have qualified on merit for each of the last three tournaments and remain in contention to pip Belgium to the top ranking in Group F with just one game left to play.
A tally of 16 points from seven games has Ralf Rangnick‘s men sitting just one point adrift of the Red Devils, who are not in action their home meeting with Azerbaijan on Sunday, meaning that Austria can temporarily rise to the summit with victory on Thursday; a draw would not suffice due to Belgium’s superior head-to-head results.
However, Belgium are the only nation to get the better of Austria in the visitors’ last 10 matches across all tournaments, and once their Group F campaign is done and dusted, Rangnick’s men will conclude a positive 2023 with a friendly against next year’s hosts Germany on November 21.
Austria made hard work of their first contest with Estonia in March, but they eventually came up trumps 2-1 – fighting back from a goal down thanks to Michael Gregoritsch‘s 88th-minute winner – and the visitors are now three for three against the Blueshirts, having also triumphed in a pair of 1998 World Cup qualifiers.
Estonia Euro Champ Qualifying form:
Estonia form (all competitions):
Austria Euro Champ Qualifying form:
Austria form (all competitions):
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Team News
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The bulk of Estonia players who competed in October’s internationals will be at Haberli’s disposal here as well, with Shamrock Rovers midfielder Markus Poom – the son of former Blueshirts and Arsenal goalkeeper Mart Poom – being recalled, as has 55-cap defender Joonas Tamm.
Speaking of Arsenal shot-stoppers, Karl Hein – who is quietly watching on in the background as David Raya and Aaron Ramsdale fight for goalkeeping supremacy – is poised to earn his 26th senior cap for his country at the age of 21, but 155-cap skipper Konstantin Vassiljev is nowhere to be seen.
As for Austria, substitute striker Guido Burgstaller had a cameo to forget in the win over Azerbaijan, as after being brought on in the final 10 minutes, he was booked for time-wasting moments before being given his marching orders for a second bookable offence.
The Rapid Wien attacker will technically serve a suspension in midweek, but he has not been called up by Rangnick anyway, allowing Sasa Kalajdzic and 36-goal veteran Marko Arnautovic to fight for the right to lead the visitors’ attack.
Key defenders David Alaba and Kevin Danso were forced to sit out the showdown with Azerbaijan last month due to injury, but the pair have now returned to full fitness and should form an intimidating barrier in front of Alexander Schlager.
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Peetson, Kuusk, Paskotsi; Lilander, Kait, Poom, Pikk; Tunjov, Vastsuk; Anier
Austria possible starting lineup:
A. Schlager; Posch, Danso, Alaba, Wober; X. Schlager, Sabitzer, Laimer; Baumgartner, Arnautovic, Gregoritsch
We say: Estonia 0-2 Austria
Austria flattered to deceive and then some during their opening showdown with Estonia, but with just 90 minutes left to try to snatch first place from Belgium’s grasp, Rangnick’s reinforced men should come up with the goods in Tallinn.
Bolstered by the returns of Alaba and Danso, the Boys should have little trouble keeping their shot-shy opponents at arm’s length as Estonia simply wait to learn their playoff fate.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.